Standard Analysis: Ugin, the Spirit Dragon

Only the second colourless planeswalker ever, Ugin has already seen far reaching impact on Standard from it's Fate Reforged release. One of the biggest allures of this card is the second ability which allows for almost anyone to recover from and impossibly daunting state on the other side of the board and with good reason.

Post-spoiler trading had the card at a $29.99 average that dropped only briefly to $26.99, the 52 week low, two weeks before release day. Ugin then opened at an impressive $32.45 average with little sign of slowing anytime soon.


Ugin, the Spirit Dragon: Averages and Lows (Dec. 31 - Jan. 26)

Source: MTG Stocks, mtgstocks.com

One problem with this card, however, is the fact that there may not be enough play in Modern to justify this card's high price in the long-term. While it is colourless, the fact that it is eight mana leaves the problem as to whether the new Modern season is much faster than previous seasons.

There's no question that the card is great in Standard, and will remain great until rotation day, but there's more buzz around whether it will see play in any other formats. As of today, February 6th, there were two decks in the Modern top tables with the card and one deck in the Legacy top tables based on recent tournament results. But, I personally still think this does not currently warrant the high price tag.

I can see this card possibly falling to less than $25.00 within the next 60 days. But, that all depends on whether people start having more confidence in Standard control decks which can utilise this card better than most others. If there is a larger uptick in control play on the major Standard events stage, we could see this price maintaining throughout its life in before rotation. However, I still consider this scenario very unlikely.

So, do we buy, sell, or hold? To be completely honest, I don't know for sure. I can see the case for people thinking the price will maintain, but that comes down to whether you really believe this card is going to become the premier planes walker in this coming season at least before Dragons of Tarkir. In my opinion, if I had any, I would sell them this coming week because the one direction I'm certain it won't go is up drastically.

Ugin, the Spirit Dragon: Averages and Lows (Jan. 23 - Fed. 6)

Source: MTG Stocks, mtgstocks.com

The card's cash flow has very much stalled in the past week and we're seeing very little growth since release weekend and there's very little likelihood that the card will see very much more growth in demand over the next few weeks which may be another good reason to liquidate now.

Overall, Ugin has an amazing ability and it absolutely will be in Standard decks until rotation day, but in the sense of finance, I still believe that it's time to sell this coming week. However, stalling prices can lead to major sell offs, which could mean that it might be a good idea to hold if prices take a nose-dive in less than 48 hours and look for a better time to sell if/when the price rises again.

I'm anxious to hear what you have to say.

Thanks for the support and happy hunting.

 - Jay

Standard Analysis: Tasigur, the Golden Fang

When Tasigur was first spoiled, there wasn't very much buzz around the card despite Delve being one of the strongest mechanics from the last set. Post-spoiler futures had the card trading at an average $2.66 but saw the price settle and open at roughly $5.00 on January 23rd.


Tasigur, the Golden Fang: Averages and Lows (Jan. 8 - Jan. 23)

Source: MTG Stocks, mtgstocks.com

However, something very surprising happened: the card put up a very good showing at the first Standard event of the new Fate Reforged season the same weekend. With that, the card jumped to an impressive, yet over-inflated, $12.89 average and still currently remains at roughly $9.50. While the showing wasn't very strong, the card was then put under the microscope when people realised that a one-mana 4/5 may have been something they had initially overlooked.

Tasigur, the Golden Fang: Averages and Lows (Jan. 23 - Feb. 6)

Source: MTG Stocks, mtgstocks.com

Now as to whether it's buy, sell, or hold time. And, to be honest, there are quite a few routes you can go depending on what you believe. One major question that remains unanswered, is whether Tasigur will show up at Pro Tour Fate Reforged in the Modern portion of the event and what this will mean for prices. The card has already shown very good Standard results recently, but the card has also found its way into the top tables of both Modern and Legacy events very recently. And I personally think that now is the time to buy. And when I say now, I mean stop reading this article and grab these before the Modern rounds start.

It's no secret that demand is very sensitive to showings at the Pro Tour (just look at the affect that Pro Tour Theros had on the price of Master of Waves).

Master of Waves: Averages and Lows (Sep. 5 - Jan. 1)

Source: MTG Stocks, mtgstocks.com

Now, what are the chances that Tasigur spikes to $20.00 with a strong showing at the Pro Tour? Very unlikely just because of the obvious difference between rares and mythics when it comes to tournament results. But, the likelihood of the card jumping to a solid $15.00? Very high to almost certain. And with a return like that, it doesn't seem like such a bad idea to pay just $8.00 a piece does it?

One other thing to remember, is that this card also has at least another year before rotation, meaning that Standard could see a major shake-up from this card long-term. But, if this card really is as good as we think it is, and it really will find it's way back into Modern and Legacy, then demand might be driven down gradually after the Pro Tour, especially if Fate Reforged has some other high demand cards that may warrant more product to be opened.

I'm anxious to hear what you all have to say.

Thanks for the support and happy hunting.

 - Jay

*Disclaimer: all prices are in USD"

Standard Analyisis: Perilous Vault

Perilous Vault is one of the most interesting cards out of M15 price wise. The card had seen little to no play in Standard decks until very recently when it started putting up good numbers at various Standard event.

Post-spoiler futures had the card trading at the $7.64 averages and opened at $5.75 on July 18th of last year. The card seemed very clunky when it was spoiled and people were feeling less confident in control strategies knowing that Return to Ravnica's would soon rotate out of Standard. And one of the main problems with this card was that the player base could not come to believe that this would be the only sweeper in the coming Standard season. Obviously, with the spoiling of End Hostilities on September 4th, you would think the M15 rare would react quite a bit, but the truth is that it still just continued its gradual decline which might have shown some uncertainty at the time before its average reached its 52 week low ($3.14) on October 9th. Yet, the card's average saw a massive spike to its 52 week high just 3 days later at the same time End Hostilities started its downward trend.


Perilous Vault: Averages and Lows (Aug. 1 - Nov. 22)

Source: MTG Stock, mtgstocks.com

So the question right now ultimately becomes whether it's worth it to cash in or hold out. In my opinion, it's time to buy. Yes, while current prices match the 52 week high, I strongly believe that tournament results may soon put this out of reach from many player in the coming month and could drive up demand to places where we would definitely not expect. I think that we could see an average price well north of $10.00 by the time the Dragons of Tarkir futures market takes shape.

I would highly recommend buying for no more that $9.00 and you could see anywhere in the range of 20-25% gains in the 4-6 weeks. This all depends on tournament results of course, but recently strong showings of Blue-Black Control in the top tables of major events may prove to be just a taste of Control returning back to the spotlight with a vengeance.

I think that the idea of futuring this card isn't too much of a bad one either. If you can get some takers on a 30-60 day future, you may be able to make quite a bit without having to worry about liquidating before sell-off season if the price isn't what you were hoping for.

Now what about the foils? I know it seems alluring to have foils sitting just above non-foil pricing, but I have to stress that I personally think this is probably a trap. The likelihood of foils retaining or increasing in value over the course of this final stretch of the card's Standard life is very low. The only justifiable reason I could see would be if it found its way in the mix as a Commander staple, which could make sense as a colourless sweeper. It all comes down to whether you think Commander players really are finding room in their decks for this card already and would be willing to pay a little or a lot extra for foils.


Perilous Vault: Averages and Foils (Sep. 22 - Feb. 5)

Source: MTG Stock, mtgstocks.com

I think, in the end, if it comes around to March or April and you still haven't sold the non-foils off, I would seriously recommend doing so even if they lead to heavy losses. Because, outside of Standard and possibly Commander, there really isn't a home for this card anywhere after early Summer.


I'm anxious to hear what you have to say.

Thanks for the support and happy hunting.
 - Jay

*Disclaimer: all prices are represented in USD*

New Post Format

Hi Everyone,

I have received some valuable feedback recently that I do not go very in depth into specifics of cards and why I believe they are good/bad investments. As a result, I have decided to change the format of my articles to include information about just one card or a set of similar cards to one another.

The first article in this new format will be posted here tomorrow.

I hope that these changes are to your liking and happy hunting.
 - Jay