Post-spoiler trading had the card at a $29.99 average that dropped only briefly to $26.99, the 52 week low, two weeks before release day. Ugin then opened at an impressive $32.45 average with little sign of slowing anytime soon.
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon: Averages and Lows (Dec. 31 - Jan. 26)
Source: MTG Stocks, mtgstocks.com
One problem with this card, however, is the fact that there may not be enough play in Modern to justify this card's high price in the long-term. While it is colourless, the fact that it is eight mana leaves the problem as to whether the new Modern season is much faster than previous seasons.
There's no question that the card is great in Standard, and will remain great until rotation day, but there's more buzz around whether it will see play in any other formats. As of today, February 6th, there were two decks in the Modern top tables with the card and one deck in the Legacy top tables based on recent tournament results. But, I personally still think this does not currently warrant the high price tag.
I can see this card possibly falling to less than $25.00 within the next 60 days. But, that all depends on whether people start having more confidence in Standard control decks which can utilise this card better than most others. If there is a larger uptick in control play on the major Standard events stage, we could see this price maintaining throughout its life in before rotation. However, I still consider this scenario very unlikely.
So, do we buy, sell, or hold? To be completely honest, I don't know for sure. I can see the case for people thinking the price will maintain, but that comes down to whether you really believe this card is going to become the premier planes walker in this coming season at least before Dragons of Tarkir. In my opinion, if I had any, I would sell them this coming week because the one direction I'm certain it won't go is up drastically.
Source: MTG Stocks, mtgstocks.com
The card's cash flow has very much stalled in the past week and we're seeing very little growth since release weekend and there's very little likelihood that the card will see very much more growth in demand over the next few weeks which may be another good reason to liquidate now.
Overall, Ugin has an amazing ability and it absolutely will be in Standard decks until rotation day, but in the sense of finance, I still believe that it's time to sell this coming week. However, stalling prices can lead to major sell offs, which could mean that it might be a good idea to hold if prices take a nose-dive in less than 48 hours and look for a better time to sell if/when the price rises again.
I'm anxious to hear what you have to say.
Thanks for the support and happy hunting.
- Jay
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