Modern Analysis: Siege Rhino

Pro Tour Fate Reforged showed us that the Modern format is alive and well after being shaken up by numerous banned & restricted changes. Modern is a large format and has seen an equally large increase in player base since the release of Modern Masters in the summer of 2013. The format has grown organically since its inception and has been the preferred eternal format for the new generation and doesn't look to be going anywhere anytime soon.

One of the absolute all-stars of the Pro Tour this last weekend was the inclusion of Siege Rhino into the most played deck in the Modern portion of the event: Abzan. Rhino has already made its presence known in Standard since its Khans release a few months ago and also surprisingly found a home in Modern before and after the new banned & restricted announcement.

Siege Rhino is currently trading at an impressive $7.72 average, which is up almost 40% from this time last week. Jared Yost (Brainstorm Brewery) wrote a very valuable analysis of the most recent Pro Tour and showed that the only rare with more copies in the Top 8 than Rhino was Scalding Tarn, and they even had more copies than any mythic in the Top 8.


Jared Yost Top 8 Analysis (Pro Tour Fate Reforged)

Source: Brainstorm Brewery, brainstormbrewery.com

Whether these numbers prove that Rhino has what it takes to stay in Modern long-term, prices for the Khans rare were reflective of the card's representation over the weekend and the card had a Monday average that settled at $6.95 and has continued to climb in the days following.

Siege Rhino: Averages (Jan. 19 - Feb. 11)

Source: MTG Stocks, mtgstocks.com

Obviously, most of the value comes from the fact that it is currently a dominating, Standard legal card, but the question is: how high could we expect the card to rise to over its remaining Standard life?

Siege Rhino: Lifetime Financials

Source: Echo MTG, echomtg.com

Siege Rhino's 52 week high occurred after the card's impressive showing at Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir and climbed to an unbelievable $10.00. However, the card hasn't climbed to anywhere near this since its showing at the Pro Tour this last weekend and I'm not so sure that it will. While the card has seemed to have proven itself time and time again, I think the card has shown itself to be too sensitive in gains to warrant a long-term investment right now.

Prices are also likely to be driven down within the next couple weeks as suppliers try to offload before prices are driven down by heavy volume. This means that it's not really the time to buy or sell at the moment. While the increasing demand is causing a big uptick in the market value, I personally think there isn't much sense in selling right now and would more encourage potentially trading up in equity.

I'm anxious to hear what you all think about this.

Is Siege Rhino still on its way up? Can it's price be maintained over its Standard life?

Thanks for the support and happy hunting.

 - Jay