One of the main things I've been focusing on lately is creating a few compositions the track the growth and cycles of various formats in the coming months.
Today, I will be walking you through the compositions that I use and check on a daily basis and where I get the numbers from. Note that all of these are changed promptly at 12:00 am PST everyday.
"Standard Rares & Mythics - Averages" (^St-RM-A) - This first one is created by using the sum of averages from every Standard-legal set's highest priced rare and mythic cards (top 10 for small sets, top 15 for large sets). This is a pretty valuable one for analysing the overall health and growth of the market and is also useful later on in conjunction with some other compositions. The higher it goes, the more expensive the value of Standard is at that moment.
"Standard Rares & Mythics - Lows" (^St-RM-L) - This one is actually found in the same way as the last one with just one difference; using the sum of the lowest prices of the same cards to get an accurate read on the growth, decline, or stagnation of the market prices for the most valuable, Standard-legal cards. And much like the last one, the higher it goes, the more expensive the value of Standard is at that moment.
"Standard Rares & Mythics - Averages minus Lows" (^St-RM-AL) - This one a combination of the two previous to measure the difference between the averages (^St-RM-A) and the lows (^St-RM-L). The close the value gets to zero, the closer we are to a trough in the cycle (low prices due to low demand).
"Set Name Rares & Mythics - Averages" (^xyz-RM-A) - This next one is the same sort of information you get from the (^St-RM-A) with the exception that this specifically measures an individual set and its meta-game impact on Standard. In the symbol, "xyz" is replaced with the three character set name found in the bottom left corner of each card with the new border (M15-present). Higher value show a high impact set, while low values show a low impact set.
"Set Name Rares & Mythics - Lows" (^xyz-RM-L) - This one is essentially the same with the exception of using lows instead of averages with the same idea of high values equaling high impact sets and low values equaling low impact sets.
There are also several others that can be useful but these are, I believe, the most useful ones for people who trade casually.
I'm interested to hear what you have to say, and let me know if you have any questions.
Thanks for the support and happy hunting.
- Jay
Thursday, February 26, 2015
Wednesday, February 25, 2015
What's the Deal with Dragons of Tarkir?
Spoiler season is just around the corner once again and I usually don't like doing this sort of thing, but I feel like some people aren't actually making any predictions this time around. So, here are some of my personal predictions for the upcoming Dragons of Tarkir set.
Dragons - This should go without saying, but we're probably going to have quite a few dragons in this set. One thing that we don't have answered is at what rarity or mana cost do they start at. In my opinion, I think we'll definitely see common, mono-coloured dragons at the very least and maybe even some multi-coloured ones as well in the range of the 2-4 drop slots on the curve. In terms of uncommon level, I think this could be a very good place to include a cycle of enemy, two-colour dragons that resemble the rare from Fate Reforged. And as for the rares and mythics, I'm not entirely sure what they could have planned because Mark Rosewater assured us that the block is not about Wedges, so I actually doubt we'll see three-colour dragons in this set apart from maybe one cycle in the mythic slot.
Dragons - This should go without saying, but we're probably going to have quite a few dragons in this set. One thing that we don't have answered is at what rarity or mana cost do they start at. In my opinion, I think we'll definitely see common, mono-coloured dragons at the very least and maybe even some multi-coloured ones as well in the range of the 2-4 drop slots on the curve. In terms of uncommon level, I think this could be a very good place to include a cycle of enemy, two-colour dragons that resemble the rare from Fate Reforged. And as for the rares and mythics, I'm not entirely sure what they could have planned because Mark Rosewater assured us that the block is not about Wedges, so I actually doubt we'll see three-colour dragons in this set apart from maybe one cycle in the mythic slot.
- Mono-coloured, common dragons between the 2-4 drop slots (one or two cycles)
- Enemy two-colour, uncommon between the 3-5 drop slots (one cycle)
- Wedge three-colour, rare/mythic between 4-6 drop slots (maybe one cycle, probably not)
Machanics - At Pro Tour Fate Reforged, Mark Rosewater explained on inside R&D that he had to take All of the clan mechanics from either Dragons or Khans. This means that we know at least two of the mechanics that will be in this final set. The mechanics we know are as followed:
- Abzan (white) - Khans: Outlast, Fate: Bolster, Dragons: Bolster
- Jeskai (blue) - Khans: Prowess, Fate: Prowess, Dragons: unknown
- Sultai (black) - Khans: Delve, Fate: Delve, Dragons: unknown
- Mardu (red) - Khans: Raid, Fate: Dash, Dragons: Dash
- Temur (green) - Khans: Ferocious, Fate: Ferocious, Dragons: unknown
As you can see, we still don't know the mechanics for Jeskai, Sultai, or Temur. However, with the two mechanics we do know, we can likely make a few other predictions as to Bolster and Dash.
We can likely come to the conclusion, based on the cards in Fate Reforged with these mechanics, that there could be (1) white cards with Dash, (2) Black cards with Bolster. However, we fall into the same sort of problem with Rosewater saying that the block isn't about Wedges, which this theory could contradict.
That is, unless there's something here that is telling us that this could be a strictly mono-coloured set, and that the clans of Tarkir have actually dissolved and have divided into their centred, mono-colours of their previous clans. This could explain why, in Fate Reforged, Dash was only on Black/Red cards and Bolster was only on White/Green cards because it could show that a mono-coloured set might use Dash for white and Bolster for black, BUT that just sounds crazy given everything we already know about the colour wheel itself, so this might not make any sense.
Narset, Plansewalker - Oh yes, I said it. Now that Sarkhan is dead and we just got Ugin, there seems to be something missing from the Planeswalker brigade. Enter Narset, Khan of the Jeskai as you probably already know. Lore information from Narset and the Jeskai contain the following quote that very easily could be interpreted as a Planeswalker spark.
Source: The Mana Source, youtube.com/TheManaSource
Could Narset be our first three-colour plansewalker? In my personal opinion, yes and no. While I would like to believe that Wizards decided to finally venture into this territory, my gut tells me that if she is printed, she will likely be two-coloured. However, I do think she will obviously contain two of the Jeskai colours and my vote would be Blue-White. The reason is because I feel that Blue-White has such a weak representation as it is and a two-colour, control-based planeswalker would easily fill that hole.
Here's another thought though, if you'll just bare with me for this last bit. Perhaps Narset may have left Tarkir. If you notice in the last piece of the sentence above, you'll see that she is committed to her clan. What if, like I said before, the clans dissolve and Narset answers her planeswalker spark and leaves the hostile Tarkir. If we don't see her at all in this set, we may actually come across her in later sets with a clear but also interesting storyline for us as players.
I'm anxious to hear what you guys think about all this. What do you expect from the new set?
Thanks for the support and happy hunting.
- Jay
Here's another thought though, if you'll just bare with me for this last bit. Perhaps Narset may have left Tarkir. If you notice in the last piece of the sentence above, you'll see that she is committed to her clan. What if, like I said before, the clans dissolve and Narset answers her planeswalker spark and leaves the hostile Tarkir. If we don't see her at all in this set, we may actually come across her in later sets with a clear but also interesting storyline for us as players.
I'm anxious to hear what you guys think about all this. What do you expect from the new set?
Thanks for the support and happy hunting.
- Jay
Thursday, February 12, 2015
Modern Analysis: Siege Rhino
Pro Tour Fate Reforged showed us that the Modern format is alive and well after being shaken up by numerous banned & restricted changes. Modern is a large format and has seen an equally large increase in player base since the release of Modern Masters in the summer of 2013. The format has grown organically since its inception and has been the preferred eternal format for the new generation and doesn't look to be going anywhere anytime soon.
One of the absolute all-stars of the Pro Tour this last weekend was the inclusion of Siege Rhino into the most played deck in the Modern portion of the event: Abzan. Rhino has already made its presence known in Standard since its Khans release a few months ago and also surprisingly found a home in Modern before and after the new banned & restricted announcement.
Siege Rhino is currently trading at an impressive $7.72 average, which is up almost 40% from this time last week. Jared Yost (Brainstorm Brewery) wrote a very valuable analysis of the most recent Pro Tour and showed that the only rare with more copies in the Top 8 than Rhino was Scalding Tarn, and they even had more copies than any mythic in the Top 8.
Jared Yost Top 8 Analysis (Pro Tour Fate Reforged)
Siege Rhino: Averages (Jan. 19 - Feb. 11)
One of the absolute all-stars of the Pro Tour this last weekend was the inclusion of Siege Rhino into the most played deck in the Modern portion of the event: Abzan. Rhino has already made its presence known in Standard since its Khans release a few months ago and also surprisingly found a home in Modern before and after the new banned & restricted announcement.
Siege Rhino is currently trading at an impressive $7.72 average, which is up almost 40% from this time last week. Jared Yost (Brainstorm Brewery) wrote a very valuable analysis of the most recent Pro Tour and showed that the only rare with more copies in the Top 8 than Rhino was Scalding Tarn, and they even had more copies than any mythic in the Top 8.
Jared Yost Top 8 Analysis (Pro Tour Fate Reforged)
Source: Brainstorm Brewery, brainstormbrewery.com
Whether these numbers prove that Rhino has what it takes to stay in Modern long-term, prices for the Khans rare were reflective of the card's representation over the weekend and the card had a Monday average that settled at $6.95 and has continued to climb in the days following.
Siege Rhino: Averages (Jan. 19 - Feb. 11)
Source: MTG Stocks, mtgstocks.com
Obviously, most of the value comes from the fact that it is currently a dominating, Standard legal card, but the question is: how high could we expect the card to rise to over its remaining Standard life?
Siege Rhino: Lifetime Financials
Source: Echo MTG, echomtg.com
Siege Rhino's 52 week high occurred after the card's impressive showing at Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir and climbed to an unbelievable $10.00. However, the card hasn't climbed to anywhere near this since its showing at the Pro Tour this last weekend and I'm not so sure that it will. While the card has seemed to have proven itself time and time again, I think the card has shown itself to be too sensitive in gains to warrant a long-term investment right now.
Prices are also likely to be driven down within the next couple weeks as suppliers try to offload before prices are driven down by heavy volume. This means that it's not really the time to buy or sell at the moment. While the increasing demand is causing a big uptick in the market value, I personally think there isn't much sense in selling right now and would more encourage potentially trading up in equity.
I'm anxious to hear what you all think about this.
Is Siege Rhino still on its way up? Can it's price be maintained over its Standard life?
Thanks for the support and happy hunting.
- Jay
Tuesday, February 10, 2015
Investing: Amulet & Why You Might Be Doing It Wrong
After a second place finish at Pro Tour Fate Reforged and a Grand Prix Top 8 just days before, Modern's Amulet of Vigor seems to be making a massive climb in popularity and interest from every angle of the Magic community, including the finance community. And whether the deck is here to stay, or destined to fall out of favour relatively soon, we have the potential, at the moment, to make a good bit of money whether this remains a pillar of the format or a fad.
The deck is extremely hard to play and involves many complex decisions that many players believe cannot be done by the average casual or competitive player. There's very little tournament results at the moment outside of its two Top 8 finishes at some of the largest events this year, which leads some to believe that it was simply a deck chosen for the specific events in an attempt to surprise. I personally am on the fence about that speculation.
But, here are some of my personal thoughts about the deck and some areas where you might not have thought about yet.
Amulet of Vigor - The deck's namesake, Amulet has jumped to a new 52 week high of $7.97 and some believe that it may continue to rise to another Modern rare that is just out of the reach of new players. "120% gains over night can only be the work of the Pro Tour," I said to myself Sunday morning. I had some meeting to attend and couldn't watch the end of tournament, but I already knew that it didn't matter who won at that point, because Amulet would be the real winner from this weekend. While the card may be a good investment, I wouldn't recommend valuing them very highly as I fear that it may be an overnight sensation that goes no where after. Try buying for less than $6.00 and try your best to sell playlets for no less than $28.00 by this weekend and you should be in the clear.
Primeval Titan - Here's one of the all-stars of the deck as well. The 6/6 land fetching not-so-jolly green giant may be one of the better investments from this deck because of it's potential in this very deck. However, I personally think that this card may be a good one to pass on because I doubt that it will ever be used in Modern outside of this very deck and doubt even more that we will ever see it in Commander again as a fallback means of liquidating.
Karoo Lands (Green) - Here's another idea that could be much less risky however. Invest in the mana base. While the original Ravnica block lands are common, foils might be the best way to go in this situation in order to make sure of a Commander-based fallback plan. There's a lot of potential for foils of these cards to increase in demand over the course of this Amulet fad, but if it doesn't work out like you'd hoped, then you can still try to sell to players in need of Karoo Lands for Commander. And, likewise, if you have some non-foils laying around as well, now would be the best time to try and sell obviously.
Overall, I'm still not so sure that Amulet decks are here to stay, but I definitely believe that now is the time to get in and out as quick as possible in case this whole thing has blown over by the next Modern event. Because if it has a poor showing, I think we can see Amulet and Titan fall back to their pre-Pro Tour prices and those Karoo lands you have will just start collecting dust again.
I'm anxious to hear your opinions on this. Is Amulet here to stay? What are you adding to your portfolio?
Thanks for the support and happy hunting.
- Jay
The deck is extremely hard to play and involves many complex decisions that many players believe cannot be done by the average casual or competitive player. There's very little tournament results at the moment outside of its two Top 8 finishes at some of the largest events this year, which leads some to believe that it was simply a deck chosen for the specific events in an attempt to surprise. I personally am on the fence about that speculation.
But, here are some of my personal thoughts about the deck and some areas where you might not have thought about yet.
Amulet of Vigor - The deck's namesake, Amulet has jumped to a new 52 week high of $7.97 and some believe that it may continue to rise to another Modern rare that is just out of the reach of new players. "120% gains over night can only be the work of the Pro Tour," I said to myself Sunday morning. I had some meeting to attend and couldn't watch the end of tournament, but I already knew that it didn't matter who won at that point, because Amulet would be the real winner from this weekend. While the card may be a good investment, I wouldn't recommend valuing them very highly as I fear that it may be an overnight sensation that goes no where after. Try buying for less than $6.00 and try your best to sell playlets for no less than $28.00 by this weekend and you should be in the clear.
Primeval Titan - Here's one of the all-stars of the deck as well. The 6/6 land fetching not-so-jolly green giant may be one of the better investments from this deck because of it's potential in this very deck. However, I personally think that this card may be a good one to pass on because I doubt that it will ever be used in Modern outside of this very deck and doubt even more that we will ever see it in Commander again as a fallback means of liquidating.
Karoo Lands (Green) - Here's another idea that could be much less risky however. Invest in the mana base. While the original Ravnica block lands are common, foils might be the best way to go in this situation in order to make sure of a Commander-based fallback plan. There's a lot of potential for foils of these cards to increase in demand over the course of this Amulet fad, but if it doesn't work out like you'd hoped, then you can still try to sell to players in need of Karoo Lands for Commander. And, likewise, if you have some non-foils laying around as well, now would be the best time to try and sell obviously.
Overall, I'm still not so sure that Amulet decks are here to stay, but I definitely believe that now is the time to get in and out as quick as possible in case this whole thing has blown over by the next Modern event. Because if it has a poor showing, I think we can see Amulet and Titan fall back to their pre-Pro Tour prices and those Karoo lands you have will just start collecting dust again.
I'm anxious to hear your opinions on this. Is Amulet here to stay? What are you adding to your portfolio?
Thanks for the support and happy hunting.
- Jay
Saturday, February 7, 2015
Legacy Analysis: True-Name Nemesis
Let me preface this by saying that I am not a Legacy player. But, in looking around at prices recently, I came across True-Name as a card that I felt like I should address.
When it first came out back in last October of last year, the card instantly became the terror of Legacy and was such given the incredibly high price tag. However, in the last few months, the card has seen an almost unprecedented decline in value from its 52 week high of $34.00 all the way to nearly creating a new 52 week low.
True-Name Nemesis: Lifetime Financials
Source: Echo MTG, echomtg.com
These numbers give us a clear sign that it may be time to start buying again. With Treasure Cruise banned, I don't think it would be too outrageous to think that Stoneblade decks could start making a return to the top tables of Legacy events and we could very well see an uptick approaching an all-time high within a year or maybe even less.
In terms of tournament play, True-Name continues to get major traction at the top tables in a variety of decks outside of just Merfolk. But, there's also not as much format-warping play as to warrant a banning like Cruise because, I believe, if Wizards wanted to do that they would have done it last year with the release of Born of the Gods or, more recently Fate Reforged when they cleaned house of all their previous mistakes. This means that we can likely have the confidence to invest and not get burned nearly as much as we could have during the card's height last year.
Here's another thing you may not have considered. This card may never be reprinted. Wizards has already acknowledged that this card was a mistake, and there doesn't seem to much of a possibility of the card ever seeing a reprint because of this, or at the very least within the next year. If the card isn't reprinted, we could see prices approach absurd levels if he remains a powerhouse in Legacy.
As you may be able to tell already, I believe this card is just begging to be snatched up right now. I would say that anything less than $15.00 right now is a steal at the moment, and anything less than $17.00 is definitely still worth considering very carefully. Prices have stalled fairly hard the last few weeks and we seemed to have reached the lowest they can go, which means things can only go up from here.
I would say to buy now and hold on until the prices from the next Core Set level out, before selling for no less than a 30% gain and look for a maximum return of over 60%. Or, the other option is to hold until the card reaches a long-term price level that could approach the all-time high within two years.
True-Name Nemesis: Averages and Lows (Oct. 28, 2013 - Feb. 6, 2015)
Source: MTG Stocks, mtgstocks.com
I'm very curious what you have to say about this.
Thanks for the support and happy hunting.
- Jay
When it first came out back in last October of last year, the card instantly became the terror of Legacy and was such given the incredibly high price tag. However, in the last few months, the card has seen an almost unprecedented decline in value from its 52 week high of $34.00 all the way to nearly creating a new 52 week low.
True-Name Nemesis: Lifetime Financials
These numbers give us a clear sign that it may be time to start buying again. With Treasure Cruise banned, I don't think it would be too outrageous to think that Stoneblade decks could start making a return to the top tables of Legacy events and we could very well see an uptick approaching an all-time high within a year or maybe even less.
In terms of tournament play, True-Name continues to get major traction at the top tables in a variety of decks outside of just Merfolk. But, there's also not as much format-warping play as to warrant a banning like Cruise because, I believe, if Wizards wanted to do that they would have done it last year with the release of Born of the Gods or, more recently Fate Reforged when they cleaned house of all their previous mistakes. This means that we can likely have the confidence to invest and not get burned nearly as much as we could have during the card's height last year.
Here's another thing you may not have considered. This card may never be reprinted. Wizards has already acknowledged that this card was a mistake, and there doesn't seem to much of a possibility of the card ever seeing a reprint because of this, or at the very least within the next year. If the card isn't reprinted, we could see prices approach absurd levels if he remains a powerhouse in Legacy.
As you may be able to tell already, I believe this card is just begging to be snatched up right now. I would say that anything less than $15.00 right now is a steal at the moment, and anything less than $17.00 is definitely still worth considering very carefully. Prices have stalled fairly hard the last few weeks and we seemed to have reached the lowest they can go, which means things can only go up from here.
I would say to buy now and hold on until the prices from the next Core Set level out, before selling for no less than a 30% gain and look for a maximum return of over 60%. Or, the other option is to hold until the card reaches a long-term price level that could approach the all-time high within two years.
True-Name Nemesis: Averages and Lows (Oct. 28, 2013 - Feb. 6, 2015)
I'm very curious what you have to say about this.
Thanks for the support and happy hunting.
- Jay
Friday, February 6, 2015
Standard Analysis: Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
Only the second colourless planeswalker ever, Ugin has already seen far reaching impact on Standard from it's Fate Reforged release. One of the biggest allures of this card is the second ability which allows for almost anyone to recover from and impossibly daunting state on the other side of the board and with good reason.
Post-spoiler trading had the card at a $29.99 average that dropped only briefly to $26.99, the 52 week low, two weeks before release day. Ugin then opened at an impressive $32.45 average with little sign of slowing anytime soon.
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon: Averages and Lows (Dec. 31 - Jan. 26)
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon: Averages and Lows (Jan. 23 - Fed. 6)
Post-spoiler trading had the card at a $29.99 average that dropped only briefly to $26.99, the 52 week low, two weeks before release day. Ugin then opened at an impressive $32.45 average with little sign of slowing anytime soon.
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon: Averages and Lows (Dec. 31 - Jan. 26)
Source: MTG Stocks, mtgstocks.com
One problem with this card, however, is the fact that there may not be enough play in Modern to justify this card's high price in the long-term. While it is colourless, the fact that it is eight mana leaves the problem as to whether the new Modern season is much faster than previous seasons.
There's no question that the card is great in Standard, and will remain great until rotation day, but there's more buzz around whether it will see play in any other formats. As of today, February 6th, there were two decks in the Modern top tables with the card and one deck in the Legacy top tables based on recent tournament results. But, I personally still think this does not currently warrant the high price tag.
I can see this card possibly falling to less than $25.00 within the next 60 days. But, that all depends on whether people start having more confidence in Standard control decks which can utilise this card better than most others. If there is a larger uptick in control play on the major Standard events stage, we could see this price maintaining throughout its life in before rotation. However, I still consider this scenario very unlikely.
So, do we buy, sell, or hold? To be completely honest, I don't know for sure. I can see the case for people thinking the price will maintain, but that comes down to whether you really believe this card is going to become the premier planes walker in this coming season at least before Dragons of Tarkir. In my opinion, if I had any, I would sell them this coming week because the one direction I'm certain it won't go is up drastically.
Source: MTG Stocks, mtgstocks.com
The card's cash flow has very much stalled in the past week and we're seeing very little growth since release weekend and there's very little likelihood that the card will see very much more growth in demand over the next few weeks which may be another good reason to liquidate now.
Overall, Ugin has an amazing ability and it absolutely will be in Standard decks until rotation day, but in the sense of finance, I still believe that it's time to sell this coming week. However, stalling prices can lead to major sell offs, which could mean that it might be a good idea to hold if prices take a nose-dive in less than 48 hours and look for a better time to sell if/when the price rises again.
I'm anxious to hear what you have to say.
Thanks for the support and happy hunting.
- Jay
Standard Analysis: Tasigur, the Golden Fang
When Tasigur was first spoiled, there wasn't very much buzz around the card despite Delve being one of the strongest mechanics from the last set. Post-spoiler futures had the card trading at an average $2.66 but saw the price settle and open at roughly $5.00 on January 23rd.
Tasigur, the Golden Fang: Averages and Lows (Jan. 8 - Jan. 23)
Tasigur, the Golden Fang: Averages and Lows (Jan. 23 - Feb. 6)
Master of Waves: Averages and Lows (Sep. 5 - Jan. 1)
Tasigur, the Golden Fang: Averages and Lows (Jan. 8 - Jan. 23)
Source: MTG Stocks, mtgstocks.com
However, something very surprising happened: the card put up a very good showing at the first Standard event of the new Fate Reforged season the same weekend. With that, the card jumped to an impressive, yet over-inflated, $12.89 average and still currently remains at roughly $9.50. While the showing wasn't very strong, the card was then put under the microscope when people realised that a one-mana 4/5 may have been something they had initially overlooked.
Source: MTG Stocks, mtgstocks.com
Now as to whether it's buy, sell, or hold time. And, to be honest, there are quite a few routes you can go depending on what you believe. One major question that remains unanswered, is whether Tasigur will show up at Pro Tour Fate Reforged in the Modern portion of the event and what this will mean for prices. The card has already shown very good Standard results recently, but the card has also found its way into the top tables of both Modern and Legacy events very recently. And I personally think that now is the time to buy. And when I say now, I mean stop reading this article and grab these before the Modern rounds start.
It's no secret that demand is very sensitive to showings at the Pro Tour (just look at the affect that Pro Tour Theros had on the price of Master of Waves).
Source: MTG Stocks, mtgstocks.com
Now, what are the chances that Tasigur spikes to $20.00 with a strong showing at the Pro Tour? Very unlikely just because of the obvious difference between rares and mythics when it comes to tournament results. But, the likelihood of the card jumping to a solid $15.00? Very high to almost certain. And with a return like that, it doesn't seem like such a bad idea to pay just $8.00 a piece does it?
One other thing to remember, is that this card also has at least another year before rotation, meaning that Standard could see a major shake-up from this card long-term. But, if this card really is as good as we think it is, and it really will find it's way back into Modern and Legacy, then demand might be driven down gradually after the Pro Tour, especially if Fate Reforged has some other high demand cards that may warrant more product to be opened.
I'm anxious to hear what you all have to say.
Thanks for the support and happy hunting.
- Jay
*Disclaimer: all prices are in USD"
Thursday, February 5, 2015
Standard Analyisis: Perilous Vault
Perilous Vault is one of the most interesting cards out of M15 price wise. The card had seen little to no play in Standard decks until very recently when it started putting up good numbers at various Standard event.
Post-spoiler futures had the card trading at the $7.64 averages and opened at $5.75 on July 18th of last year. The card seemed very clunky when it was spoiled and people were feeling less confident in control strategies knowing that Return to Ravnica's would soon rotate out of Standard. And one of the main problems with this card was that the player base could not come to believe that this would be the only sweeper in the coming Standard season. Obviously, with the spoiling of End Hostilities on September 4th, you would think the M15 rare would react quite a bit, but the truth is that it still just continued its gradual decline which might have shown some uncertainty at the time before its average reached its 52 week low ($3.14) on October 9th. Yet, the card's average saw a massive spike to its 52 week high just 3 days later at the same time End Hostilities started its downward trend.
Perilous Vault: Averages and Lows (Aug. 1 - Nov. 22)
Source: MTG Stock, mtgstocks.com
So the question right now ultimately becomes whether it's worth it to cash in or hold out. In my opinion, it's time to buy. Yes, while current prices match the 52 week high, I strongly believe that tournament results may soon put this out of reach from many player in the coming month and could drive up demand to places where we would definitely not expect. I think that we could see an average price well north of $10.00 by the time the Dragons of Tarkir futures market takes shape.
I would highly recommend buying for no more that $9.00 and you could see anywhere in the range of 20-25% gains in the 4-6 weeks. This all depends on tournament results of course, but recently strong showings of Blue-Black Control in the top tables of major events may prove to be just a taste of Control returning back to the spotlight with a vengeance.
I think that the idea of futuring this card isn't too much of a bad one either. If you can get some takers on a 30-60 day future, you may be able to make quite a bit without having to worry about liquidating before sell-off season if the price isn't what you were hoping for.
Now what about the foils? I know it seems alluring to have foils sitting just above non-foil pricing, but I have to stress that I personally think this is probably a trap. The likelihood of foils retaining or increasing in value over the course of this final stretch of the card's Standard life is very low. The only justifiable reason I could see would be if it found its way in the mix as a Commander staple, which could make sense as a colourless sweeper. It all comes down to whether you think Commander players really are finding room in their decks for this card already and would be willing to pay a little or a lot extra for foils.
Perilous Vault: Averages and Foils (Sep. 22 - Feb. 5)
Source: MTG Stock, mtgstocks.com
I think, in the end, if it comes around to March or April and you still haven't sold the non-foils off, I would seriously recommend doing so even if they lead to heavy losses. Because, outside of Standard and possibly Commander, there really isn't a home for this card anywhere after early Summer.
I'm anxious to hear what you have to say.
Thanks for the support and happy hunting.
- Jay
*Disclaimer: all prices are represented in USD*
Post-spoiler futures had the card trading at the $7.64 averages and opened at $5.75 on July 18th of last year. The card seemed very clunky when it was spoiled and people were feeling less confident in control strategies knowing that Return to Ravnica's would soon rotate out of Standard. And one of the main problems with this card was that the player base could not come to believe that this would be the only sweeper in the coming Standard season. Obviously, with the spoiling of End Hostilities on September 4th, you would think the M15 rare would react quite a bit, but the truth is that it still just continued its gradual decline which might have shown some uncertainty at the time before its average reached its 52 week low ($3.14) on October 9th. Yet, the card's average saw a massive spike to its 52 week high just 3 days later at the same time End Hostilities started its downward trend.
Perilous Vault: Averages and Lows (Aug. 1 - Nov. 22)
So the question right now ultimately becomes whether it's worth it to cash in or hold out. In my opinion, it's time to buy. Yes, while current prices match the 52 week high, I strongly believe that tournament results may soon put this out of reach from many player in the coming month and could drive up demand to places where we would definitely not expect. I think that we could see an average price well north of $10.00 by the time the Dragons of Tarkir futures market takes shape.
I would highly recommend buying for no more that $9.00 and you could see anywhere in the range of 20-25% gains in the 4-6 weeks. This all depends on tournament results of course, but recently strong showings of Blue-Black Control in the top tables of major events may prove to be just a taste of Control returning back to the spotlight with a vengeance.
I think that the idea of futuring this card isn't too much of a bad one either. If you can get some takers on a 30-60 day future, you may be able to make quite a bit without having to worry about liquidating before sell-off season if the price isn't what you were hoping for.
Now what about the foils? I know it seems alluring to have foils sitting just above non-foil pricing, but I have to stress that I personally think this is probably a trap. The likelihood of foils retaining or increasing in value over the course of this final stretch of the card's Standard life is very low. The only justifiable reason I could see would be if it found its way in the mix as a Commander staple, which could make sense as a colourless sweeper. It all comes down to whether you think Commander players really are finding room in their decks for this card already and would be willing to pay a little or a lot extra for foils.
Perilous Vault: Averages and Foils (Sep. 22 - Feb. 5)
I think, in the end, if it comes around to March or April and you still haven't sold the non-foils off, I would seriously recommend doing so even if they lead to heavy losses. Because, outside of Standard and possibly Commander, there really isn't a home for this card anywhere after early Summer.
I'm anxious to hear what you have to say.
Thanks for the support and happy hunting.
- Jay
*Disclaimer: all prices are represented in USD*
Wednesday, February 4, 2015
New Post Format
Hi Everyone,
I have received some valuable feedback recently that I do not go very in depth into specifics of cards and why I believe they are good/bad investments. As a result, I have decided to change the format of my articles to include information about just one card or a set of similar cards to one another.
The first article in this new format will be posted here tomorrow.
I hope that these changes are to your liking and happy hunting.
- Jay
I have received some valuable feedback recently that I do not go very in depth into specifics of cards and why I believe they are good/bad investments. As a result, I have decided to change the format of my articles to include information about just one card or a set of similar cards to one another.
The first article in this new format will be posted here tomorrow.
I hope that these changes are to your liking and happy hunting.
- Jay
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