Post-spoiler futures had the card trading at the $7.64 averages and opened at $5.75 on July 18th of last year. The card seemed very clunky when it was spoiled and people were feeling less confident in control strategies knowing that Return to Ravnica's would soon rotate out of Standard. And one of the main problems with this card was that the player base could not come to believe that this would be the only sweeper in the coming Standard season. Obviously, with the spoiling of End Hostilities on September 4th, you would think the M15 rare would react quite a bit, but the truth is that it still just continued its gradual decline which might have shown some uncertainty at the time before its average reached its 52 week low ($3.14) on October 9th. Yet, the card's average saw a massive spike to its 52 week high just 3 days later at the same time End Hostilities started its downward trend.
Perilous Vault: Averages and Lows (Aug. 1 - Nov. 22)
So the question right now ultimately becomes whether it's worth it to cash in or hold out. In my opinion, it's time to buy. Yes, while current prices match the 52 week high, I strongly believe that tournament results may soon put this out of reach from many player in the coming month and could drive up demand to places where we would definitely not expect. I think that we could see an average price well north of $10.00 by the time the Dragons of Tarkir futures market takes shape.
I would highly recommend buying for no more that $9.00 and you could see anywhere in the range of 20-25% gains in the 4-6 weeks. This all depends on tournament results of course, but recently strong showings of Blue-Black Control in the top tables of major events may prove to be just a taste of Control returning back to the spotlight with a vengeance.
I think that the idea of futuring this card isn't too much of a bad one either. If you can get some takers on a 30-60 day future, you may be able to make quite a bit without having to worry about liquidating before sell-off season if the price isn't what you were hoping for.
Now what about the foils? I know it seems alluring to have foils sitting just above non-foil pricing, but I have to stress that I personally think this is probably a trap. The likelihood of foils retaining or increasing in value over the course of this final stretch of the card's Standard life is very low. The only justifiable reason I could see would be if it found its way in the mix as a Commander staple, which could make sense as a colourless sweeper. It all comes down to whether you think Commander players really are finding room in their decks for this card already and would be willing to pay a little or a lot extra for foils.
Perilous Vault: Averages and Foils (Sep. 22 - Feb. 5)
I think, in the end, if it comes around to March or April and you still haven't sold the non-foils off, I would seriously recommend doing so even if they lead to heavy losses. Because, outside of Standard and possibly Commander, there really isn't a home for this card anywhere after early Summer.
I'm anxious to hear what you have to say.
Thanks for the support and happy hunting.
- Jay
*Disclaimer: all prices are represented in USD*
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